Archive for July, 2007

The Rumor Mill Hits Apple

Apple (AAPL) stock was down more than $6.00 per share today. Rumors surrounding decreased production levels of either the iPhone or iPod sent shares plummeting. The production decreases in the iPod may be happening, but it should suggest a new iPod, which would be hugely optimistic.

“There are occasional rumors on Apple, often unconfirmed. A lot of them end up being wrong or short-term,” said Shaw Wu, an analyst with American Technology Research.

Apple stock is being unfairly punished on this slow Summer day on Wall Street. Take this opportunity to invest more.

Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL)

The Sweet Smell of Apple’s Monster Quarter

On Monday, investors saw Apple (AAPL) run-up before AT&T’s (T) earnings results, which came out the next day before the bell. Based upon the earnings numbers on Tuesday morning, investors saw weakness in both companies. Therefore, on Tuesday, Apple was hit particularly hard by the idea that they had weak sales numbers for the iPhone. Shares finished down more than $8 per share on Tuesday. It was clear to see the effect that both worried investors and confident short sellers were having in the stock.

Things quickly changed today. At the closing bell, Apple had finished up $2.37 to $137.26 per share. Shortly afterwards, Apple released the Q3 investor earnings call and results. Earnings rose 73% from last year, “spurred on by strong sales of its flagship Macintosh computers and iPod digital media players, as well as shipments of 270,000 of its new iPhones.” Apple earned 92 cents per share (consensus estimates were at 72 cents), or $818 million, compared with 54 cents per share a year ago. Gross margins climbed to 36.9 percent, compared with 30.3 percent as of last year.

Investors are about to realize one of the greatest growth companies in the United States is soon to reach $200 per share. Apple has exponential growth and will soon be looked upon as a real competitor of Dell, HP, and other popular Windows-based computer manufacturers. As we highlighted a few day ago, Apple has quite some time until reaching those levels, but everything is optimistic. Remember, MarketMatador.com has long been a supporter of Apple, and we believe there’s a real strength in Apple, which will send shares to $200 by the end of the year.

Listen to Apple’s webcast.

Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Who Knows Helio?

With $440 million of partner investments and a business partnership between SK Telecom (SKM) and Earthlink (ELNK), Helio has led to one of the most successful mobile phone company startups in recent years. Helio primarily uses the networks of SK Telecom for the mobile phone service and Earthlink for the actual internet usage on the phones. “Helio is a new mobile brand custom-built for young, connected consumers.” Simply put, Helio appeals to a younger, more affluent consumer.

mainnav_logo.gifHelio is the only mobile service provider to offer a custom mobile MySpace service that allows you to manage MySpace mail, comments and friend requests while on the go. We also offer photo blogging and posting directly from your Helio device to your MySpace account, including more photo storage on MySpace. Other unique services include the ability to gift, or buy for another Helio member, and beg, or request from another Helio member, content including 3D and multiplayer games.”

These advanced features often appeal to the younger audiences and are on the fastest networks available, 3G. This is where, even as MarketMatador.com often supports Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, the iPhone isn’t quite as superior as consumers and the street may think. By comparing the iPhone to Helio’s newest phone, the Ocean, consumers can directly see, point-to-point, which phone is better.

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Immediately noticeable is the clear price differentiation in devices and network speeds. $200 to $400 cheaper, on a faster 2.4Mbps network speed. Also, one of the most interesting features is GPS-enabled Google Maps, as opposed to the iPhone’s basic Google Maps without live-GPS. Instant messaging is a gigantic feature missing from the iPhone and inside the Helio Ocean. Many Apple iPhone users have commented about the lacking IM feature and have only been able to point to 3rd party applications through the Safari browser as a solution.

“Last week they announced that they reached 100,000 customers and have ARPU (average revenue per user) of $100 – way above the average for mobile startups. A lot of Helio’s success can be attributed to their new Ocean, a killer dual-slider phone. I actually considered using the Ocean over the iPhone because it has a keyboard and great instant messaging support, but it doesn’t sync with Macs.” (SOURCE)

The one negative would be the unsupported syncing with Macs. A clear flaw that investors can only hope changes in the near future for Helio products. Otherwise, Helio is hugely successful and the results have already had tremendous effects on SK Telecom stock.

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Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Apple Trending Higher as Estimates and Market Share Increase

Apple (AAPL) is up $3.77 today on an upgrade from Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray. He believes the combination of the iPod’s future development and the iPhone has tremendous potential (quite possibly the most obvious statement on the street). Ultimately, Gene suggested that Apple’s price target should be raised to $205 per share, one of the highest on the street.

Also, there’s an interesting number that hit the street a couple of days ago. IDC released market share numbers for the top worldwide computer brands.

“Apple’s 2nd Quarter 2007 U.S. market share was up to 5.6% of U.S. shipments. This tied Apple in 3rd place with Gateway for U.S. market share for this quarter. Dell and HP were well ahead at 28.4% and 23.6% respectively. Apple did not rank in the top 5 vendors for worldwide sales. The 5.6% U.S. market share represents an increase from 4.8% in the year-ago (2006) quarter, which was an increase from 4.4% in the Q2 2005 quarter. ” (SOURCE)

Apple Pie

Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Hopping on the Apple Bandwagon to $200

As the minutes counted down to the iPhone release, all that could be heard was the yelling and utter excitement of plopping down $600 plus monthly service fees for a phone on steroids. The cult has no concern for overbought conditions (for better and for worse). Message boards and rumor sites alike, battle back and forth over the stock price and latest announcements. Both sides, shorts and longs, both accusing each other of being pumpers and dumpers and paid pushers. All this over a company that barely survived the tech boom.

Apple (AAPL) was reinvented by the invention of the iPod and there is no consumer, company, or investor that can disagree with that. Hundreds of millions of iPods have been sold, not to mention some one million iPhones have been sold in under two weeks. As the days roll by, and the Apple investor crowd slowly transitions from iPhone rumors and thoughts to what catalysts are left for Apple, many investors may be in for an interesting surprise.

At MarketMatador.com, readers have long known about the excitement and ever-expanding possibilities surrounding Apple, but few have followed the advice. A long-time reader of the site sent us a message kicking himself in the head for missing Apple’s big move to $125 from $100. All we can say is, Apple’s not done yet. Earnings estimates and current analyst sentiment is pointing to marked increases in revenue and earnings, but many estimates aren’t accurately taking into effect the power that the iPhone will have on earnings.

It’s interesting that until just yesterday, many of the bigger stock and finance blogs had yet to cover Apple. At TheBullTrader.com, Steve Abraham just explained many of the issues at hand. Steve believes Apple should earn over $4 per share in earnings, while most analysts are stuck at a $3.75 earnings estimate. Among the post are some suggestions that investors could hear about a stock split in the next quarter’s earnings report on July 25th.

Apple has been on a non-stop rally since announcing exceptional earnings results and the attention grabbing iPhone. Now is the time to look further down the road for Apple’s stock and see that the bullish story isn’t quite over. The next two to three earnings results should be especially strong and the continued optimism around the ongoing revenue received from AT&T (T) wireless plans (AT&T agreed to share revenue made from the iPhones wireless plans with Apple) should only add to Apple’s market cap.

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Disclosure: Long AT&T (T) and Apple (AAPL).

Research in Motion and Apple can Co-Exist Despite iPhone

Many consumers believe that the iPhone is the be all and end all of smartphones, and while it is a revolutionary product, the competition, and maker of the business-class Blackberry can only see green. The iPhone may daunt sales of Blackberry’s parent company, Research in Motion (RIMM), but it’s important to note that the stock price is higher than ever. Much of this can be directly related to the incredible sense that the business-class wont switch over to the iPhone. This could potentially be one of the iPhone’s negatives. The fact is that many people need word and spreadsheet processors, alongside fully functional chat and e-mail clients. RIM’s Blackberry products consistently deliver to this consumer base. Also, an interesting theory has been suggested since the introduction of the iPhone. Consumers may actually be looking at the Apple (AAPL) device, and then researching what the entire product line-up of smartphones has to offer. Those consumers may find that the iPhone doesn’t suit all their needs, and a Blackberry product may work much better. At the end of the day, both Apple and Research in Motion may be able to co-exist in the smartphone/phone market, and both do quite well.

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Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Optimistic Numbers for Apple’s iPhone Crossing Wires; $300 Million in Weekend Sales

MarketMatador.com just covered the release and madness of the initial sale of the iPhone, but it looks like sales might be even better than expected. There’s no public expectation or sales number that Apple (AAPL) was estimating or trying to accomplish, but the current numbers should support another record quarter of earnings.

The TechCrunch.com staff has been one of the first to report the numbers out of Piper Jaffray. PJ is estimating that “Apple sold half a million iPhones from 6 p.m. Friday through the close of business on Sunday. With the devices going for $500 to $600, that’s around $250 to $300 million in cash changing hands, depending on the mix of 4GB and 8GB units sold.”

While profit margins haven’t been clear for the device, estimates have ranged from 20 to 50 percent per unit. Many websites have already disassembled the iPhone to show that aside from the touchscreen, many of the inner parts are relatively normal and inexpensive. Therefore, profit margins could be as great as $300 per unit, with conservative estimates coming in at $120 per unit.

This has certainly been a blockbuster weekend for Apple. Today should be quite telling as to how investors interpreted the initial sales numbers.

Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Wynn Resorts is a Winner

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) dropped below $87.50 support levels quite recently, but it looks like the company may have bottomed out in the short term. WYNN has been punished quite recently as the entertainment/casino company has suffered directly from economic worries on Wall Street. The RSI and stock charts both show a clear reversal and uptrend from recent declines. Earnings and the general future outlook should continue to be strong for the company, especially alongside Macau’s casino growth.

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Disclosure: No Conflicts.