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29th May 2007

Jim Cramer Recommends Selling a Large Portion of Apple Stock; Here’s Why He’s Wrong

On today’s episode of Mad Money with Jim Cramer, Jim recommended selling out of all but a quarter of positions in Apple (AAPL). Unfortunately for Jim, he may have completely missed the boat on this one, because AAPL is headed much higher.

“I do believe the stock will get its head handed to it the day that the stuff gets out.” (SOURCE)

The comment was in response to a question posed by a watcher of Mad Money, and Cramer made it quite clear that he believed AAPL would hit a top, at least in the short-term, after the iPhone is released. In reality, the release of the new iPhone should just be the start of the Apple Inc. revolution. Here are some key dates that all investors and consumers should know.

Apple Logo

The Wall Street Journal will host the “D: All Things Digital” conference starting the 29th through the 31st of May. Inside the conference will be a historic joint appearance with Bill Gates and Steve Jobs,which is being tauted as the highlight for the entire event. The Gates/Jobs event will take place on Wednesday, May 30th, 2007.

Next up is the WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference), which runs between June 11th and 15th. One the first day of the event, Steve Jobs will be expected to deliver the traditional keynote address and beta test copies of Apple’s new operating system, OSX Leopard. Also, rumors are beginning to emerge about a possible update to the Apple line of MacBook Pros.

IPHONELast, but certainly not least, is the event that consumers and investors have been waiting quite some time for, the release of the all-new Apple iPhone. The closest estimate to the release of the iPhone is slated towards a late-June release. Rumors about a possible WWDC release of the iPhone have also made sense, but here’s a look at a few key dates for the possible release of the phone:

  • iPhone Training (AT&T (T) and Apple employees will be highly trained and knowledgeable about the release): May 30-June 20th
  • AT&T Vacation Blockout dates (employees have been asked to refrain from going on vacation due to estimated large customer service call volumes): June 15-July 15th
  • Confidentiality on FCC Documents (user manual, photos) expires June 30th

All these details lead to only one conclusion, a bullish scenario for Apple’s stock, potentialy well into the Summer season. Looking further into the future, Apple’s stock should have an enormous rally surrounded by the Christmas buying season, which may ultimately be highly dependent on the initial reviews of the iPhone. Jim Cramer may often have his wits about him when stock picking, but this semi-bearish sentiment sounds just plain wrong.

Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL) and AT&T (T).

Update: Apple revealed today that they will be introducing a 160GB Apple TV for $399. Apple TV is slated to have YouTube by mid-June as well.

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posted in Jim Cramer, Apple (AAPL), AT&T (T) | 1 Comment

17th May 2007

The Starbucks Effect and the Saturation Point

sat-u-ra-tion (sāch’ə-rā’shən) - “The flooding of a market with all of a commodity that consumers can purchase.”

It was never hard to see why people clamored over the coffee. It was good, and more importantly it was consistent. The ambiance and general feel of the stores was unique, and yet easy to be attracted by the soft music and warm pictures. Overrun by an overzealous and greedy board of directors, Starbucks (SBUX) has transformed into just another average company.

Nowadays, consumers enjoy having a coffee place that’s right around the corner and worth the price. Unfortunately, Starbucks took the demand of the consumer a step too far, by over saturating the market with stores.

One of the best examples of over saturation can be found in a strip mall in Colorado. Exactly three Starbucks locations can be found, no more than 750 ft away from one another, and two of the three stores are only 200 ft away from each other. By flooding the market with spots for coffee, Starbucks has been wasting growth potential, and opting for current market optimization. Unfortunately, the optimization is becoming wasteful and hurting the brand image.

In a number of press releases, Howard Schultz, Chairman and Founder of Starbucks, has mentioned the loss of original roots associated with becoming a chain store. The focus on coffee shop ambiance was the root to Starbucks’ success, but somewhere along the line the company lost the entrepreneurial spirit.

On May 3rd, 2007, Starbucks announced an in-line quarter of 19 cents per share. Revenue increased 20 percent, while same-store sales climbed 4 percent.

“Looking ahead, the company said it plans to open about 2,400 new stores worldwide in fiscal 2007. In the U.S., Starbucks expects to open about 1,000 company-operated locations and 700 licensed locations. Starbucks said it is targeting total revenue growth of about 20% for the full year and same-store sales growth of 3% to 4%. The company continues to forecast earnings of 87 cents to 89 cents a share for fiscal 2007.” (SOURCE)

Obviously, both investors and the company felt confidant in the quarter and its numbers. Shares in SBUX promptly climbed 2.9 percent in after-hours trading that day.

The optimism quickly faded and the bull run disappeared, and now SBUX is down about 30 percent from the 52 week high of $40.01. In the past, shares have traded down just under $29 per share, and rallied up from support. Now, shares have broken through that support level and are now trading near the low-$28s. Shares may have entered a short-term oversold territory, but the relatively high P/E of 35x earnings are still dissuading investors from buying in now. Based upon price-to-earnings for the year 2008, Starbucks will still be trading at an expensive 26x earnings, but if shares continue to pullback, a purchase may be necessary. In the short-term, shares in SBUX should continue to pullback, but look to buy in at the low $20s.

Disclosure: No conflicts.

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posted in Starbucks (SBUX) | 4 Comments

9th May 2007

Apple’s Recent iPhone-Like Rumor Growth Over the MacBook Pro

Apple Inc. (AAPL) recently released a press statement about “A Greener Apple.” The article suggested the many ways that the company is improving the amounts of waste and energy usage associated with Apple products.

“Today is the first time we have openly discussed our plans to become a greener Apple. It will not be the last. We will be providing updates of our efforts and accomplishments at least annually, most likely around this time of the year. And we plan to bring other environmental issues to the table as well, such as the energy efficiency of the products in our industry. We are also beginning to explore the overall carbon “footprint” of our products, and may have some interesting data and issues to share later this year.” (SOURCE)

Now that the general public understands the progress Apple is making in becoming green, investors and consumers alike can look forward to a possible energy efficient release of the MacBook Pro (laptop). In the past two days, rumor sites like MacRumors, AppleInsider, and CrunchGear have all echoed the idea that an update to the Apple product line will be released soon.

The updated MacBook Pro should feature a recent technology advance of an LED monitor, rather than the traditional LCD monitor. The new LED based monitors will greatly increase battery life, while also displaying colors in a more vibrant light. The increased battery life will appeal to the greener movement, while the better display colors will appeal to the best graphic designers in the world.

Overall, most of these rumors can only mean one thing, consumers should soon see the release of the all new MacBook Pro. Analysts are predicting that the upgrade will happen anywhere from “within a month” to “the end of the 3rd quarter.” The rumors have been targeting the specific 15.4″ model of the MBP, and the most educated predictions have recommended a June 2007 WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference) release. As the previous Market Matador post on Apple stated, the stock is setting up to travel to $125 per share very quickly, and the MBP will further bolster confidence behind the stock.

Update: It appears as though rumors about a Tuesday, May 15th release of MacBook/Pro updates are in the works. Investors and consumers could learn the news about an update as early as 8 AM EST.

Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL)

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posted in Apple (AAPL) | 4 Comments

8th May 2007

Apple Stock Setting Up to Move to $125 Per Share

Only 9 cents from the 52 week high, Apple (AAPL) looks like the best play in tech today. Over the past two days, Apple stock has had incredible buying pressure, and ended up $1.14, or 1.10 percent today. Despite the upwards momentum, the stock is on the cusp of another move higher.

A pullback from profit taking should soon occur, and look to get in near $100 per share. After Apple’s big summer releases (iPhone, MacBook Pro, etc.), Apple should quickly move to $125 per share without even a cent of new earnings. Only the expectation of greater earnings should should be a catalyst for new movement.

It’s also important to note that at these levels Apple is also a candidate for a stock split. Market Matador talked about this very issue back in March. (Some information may be dated)

Disclosure: Long Apple Inc. (AAPL)

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posted in Apple (AAPL) | 2 Comments


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